I am neither a hardcore republican nor a Maoists’ sympathiser. I have no problem if a truly ceremonial monarchy remained in Nepal forever. But like many political onlookers, I have always felt that a negotiated settlement with the Maoists is a must if peace and stability is to be ensured in Nepal. Without addressing to their cause, the wish for political stability will remain a hopeless dream.
The environment for a negotiated settlement was building up in recent months. You might not believe everything that Prachanda said in media, but their standpoint about communism in the 21st century bore a practical niche. Their admission to multi-party democracy sounded authentic. And Baburam Bhattarai’s response (in The Kathmandu Post) to James Moriarty’s speech has clarified much of the ambiguity surrounding their commitments. They were ready to accept the revival of parliament, and to start the peace process with only one pre-condition i.e. the election of the constituent assembly. A ceasefire would have been enforced from the beginning and disarmament and rehabilitation of the rebels would have been a part of the peace process. No armed rebel groups in the world have surrendered their weapons at the beginning of a peace process and it is wishful thinking to expect the impossible from the Nepalese Maoists.
With the 12 points understanding between the Maoists and the seven parties’ alliance, the possibility of a peaceful solution was in the cards. This was the perfect opportunity to strike a compromised deal between Nepal’s major political powers. This was the right time for the well wishers of Nepalese monarchy to persuade King Gyanendra to back off. They could have suggested him to play a positive role to draw the Maoists in the negotiating table. With the revival of the parliament and the start of the peace process, the palace could have demanded for an inclusive deal that could accommodate itself in the power triangle. With some flexibility, the row about constituent assembly election could have been settled for a referendum on monarchy or even for an agreement to amend some of the clauses that had been deemed as irreversible in the 2046 BS constitution. When everybody accepts to reverse the irreversible, any constitutional provision that gave the king some edge could have been amended by the parliament. After all, constitution is a men-made document; little bit of honesty and truthfulness from all sides would have been just enough to hammer a settlement.
The Maoists showed some flexibility, the king was under severe pressure and a ray of hope for peace had emerged. Follows the Moriarty’s statement, instead of persuading the king to seize the moment for a long lasting peace deal, he blatantly attacks every one and calls for alienating the Maoists. The callousness in his statement was pretty obvious.
Thus Moriarty’s statement has robbed the chance of a negotiated resolution. I see a clear picture of a chronic bipolar struggle ahead in Nepal. It seems more likely that the dumbest man in Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba, will be the Prime Minister once again. A sizeable number of opportunist leaders and their cronies will elope with him to the Singha Durbar. Deuba will remain to be the puppet of the palace, increasing the royal expenditure every year. What else the chump can do? He will be pushed from and pulled into the PMs Office, to make room for Surya Bahadurs and Kamal Thapas. There will be no parliament before the election. (Or will the Supreme Court order the reinstatement of Parliament? May be if its term had not expired). When NC (D), RPP (both factions), Janashakti and others will participate in election, the US will validate it. The Panchas will emerge victorious. Nepali Congress will never be unified. It won’t be surprising if the UML broke. Staunch democrats from NC will go to exile in India. UML leaders will go underground. Republican youngsters will join the Maoists. And the fight will continue. How long? No one knows. For armed struggle, you need guns. For guns, you have to pay. To whom- US, India, China, Pakistan and so on. No wonder if US military stationed in Nepal permanently to train the RNAs, if the Indians came to crush the Maoists (as they did in Sri Lanka in 1987 to crush the Tamils). Wish we could avert such situations. Wish Deuba could be persuaded not to be lured by the bones. Unfortunately dogs can’t survive without bones. So folks, wait and see a long bloody battle between republicans and non-republicans in our country. It is obvious that the middle grounder will also suffer from the fight. Sadly, those who want instability in our country will win the battle, our motherland herself will loose.
The environment for a negotiated settlement was building up in recent months. You might not believe everything that Prachanda said in media, but their standpoint about communism in the 21st century bore a practical niche. Their admission to multi-party democracy sounded authentic. And Baburam Bhattarai’s response (in The Kathmandu Post) to James Moriarty’s speech has clarified much of the ambiguity surrounding their commitments. They were ready to accept the revival of parliament, and to start the peace process with only one pre-condition i.e. the election of the constituent assembly. A ceasefire would have been enforced from the beginning and disarmament and rehabilitation of the rebels would have been a part of the peace process. No armed rebel groups in the world have surrendered their weapons at the beginning of a peace process and it is wishful thinking to expect the impossible from the Nepalese Maoists.
With the 12 points understanding between the Maoists and the seven parties’ alliance, the possibility of a peaceful solution was in the cards. This was the perfect opportunity to strike a compromised deal between Nepal’s major political powers. This was the right time for the well wishers of Nepalese monarchy to persuade King Gyanendra to back off. They could have suggested him to play a positive role to draw the Maoists in the negotiating table. With the revival of the parliament and the start of the peace process, the palace could have demanded for an inclusive deal that could accommodate itself in the power triangle. With some flexibility, the row about constituent assembly election could have been settled for a referendum on monarchy or even for an agreement to amend some of the clauses that had been deemed as irreversible in the 2046 BS constitution. When everybody accepts to reverse the irreversible, any constitutional provision that gave the king some edge could have been amended by the parliament. After all, constitution is a men-made document; little bit of honesty and truthfulness from all sides would have been just enough to hammer a settlement.
The Maoists showed some flexibility, the king was under severe pressure and a ray of hope for peace had emerged. Follows the Moriarty’s statement, instead of persuading the king to seize the moment for a long lasting peace deal, he blatantly attacks every one and calls for alienating the Maoists. The callousness in his statement was pretty obvious.
Thus Moriarty’s statement has robbed the chance of a negotiated resolution. I see a clear picture of a chronic bipolar struggle ahead in Nepal. It seems more likely that the dumbest man in Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba, will be the Prime Minister once again. A sizeable number of opportunist leaders and their cronies will elope with him to the Singha Durbar. Deuba will remain to be the puppet of the palace, increasing the royal expenditure every year. What else the chump can do? He will be pushed from and pulled into the PMs Office, to make room for Surya Bahadurs and Kamal Thapas. There will be no parliament before the election. (Or will the Supreme Court order the reinstatement of Parliament? May be if its term had not expired). When NC (D), RPP (both factions), Janashakti and others will participate in election, the US will validate it. The Panchas will emerge victorious. Nepali Congress will never be unified. It won’t be surprising if the UML broke. Staunch democrats from NC will go to exile in India. UML leaders will go underground. Republican youngsters will join the Maoists. And the fight will continue. How long? No one knows. For armed struggle, you need guns. For guns, you have to pay. To whom- US, India, China, Pakistan and so on. No wonder if US military stationed in Nepal permanently to train the RNAs, if the Indians came to crush the Maoists (as they did in Sri Lanka in 1987 to crush the Tamils). Wish we could avert such situations. Wish Deuba could be persuaded not to be lured by the bones. Unfortunately dogs can’t survive without bones. So folks, wait and see a long bloody battle between republicans and non-republicans in our country. It is obvious that the middle grounder will also suffer from the fight. Sadly, those who want instability in our country will win the battle, our motherland herself will loose.
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