Nine days after the declaration of republic in Nepal, political parties have still failed to reach to a consensus on how to form a new government. The largest winner of the CA elections, CPN (M), wants to lead a coalition government with its biggest share in the council of ministers. The Maoists have also claimed their stake on the role of a President after the Monarchy has been abolished. But other parties including Nepali Congress, CPN (UML) and TMDP have asked the Maoists to muster the two-third majority required to form their government, according to the provision of the Interim Constitution. This is an impossible asking because the Maoists have less than 35% of the CA seats. Negotiations are going on between the parties but they haven't yet agreed on the necessary constitutional ammendments that would pave the way for the formation of a new government. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala who was appointed to lead the government until the CA elections hasn't resigned yet, nor have his cabinet ministers. The debate about who should lead and how to form the new government has two dimensions:
1. Maoists' failure to assure the non-Maoist political entities that they will abide by the democratic principles and the rule of law.
2. Non-Maoists, chiefly NC and UML's failure to recognize that the Maoists are by far the largest party in the CA and therefore they have the electoral and moral rights to lead a new coalition government.
Let us assume that these failures have more to do with trying to bargain for as much influence as each could, rather than trying to knock one another out from the political playing field.
The Maoists, at times, have raised questions on their commitment to pluralistic democracy. NC and UML are fearful and distrustful of the Maoists for this reason. But I think that GPK's unswerving hunger for power and position is another important factor. Give GPK the role of President, and I am almost sure this deadlock will end. That will ultimately prove that the ongoing dispute is less about persuading the Maoists to act democratically.
More could have been done in the past three years to persuade the Maoists to a practically binding commitment for non-violent politics. Probably the issues of YCL and PLA could have been addressed in a decisive manner, with a set timetable regarding what to do with them, during the negotiations. But there were also situations where the Maoists had to be given the benefit of doubt. Holding CA elections was the topmost priority and without the compromises and agreements made then, the situation could also have turned completely wrong and we could have been in a more horrible position by now. We can never know what might have happened if the negotiations between the then 7 parties and the Maoists had failed. Therefore, I don't hold NC, UML and civil society fully responsible for everything that might go wrong after the Maoists emerge as the single largest party in the CA now. They (7 parties) did it in a good faith and we should wait for another 5 years to make a decision on whether their judgements were right or wrong in entirety.
Exceptional concession given to the Maoists after the fall of Gyanendra Shah's regime was not the only reason why NC and UML suffered the humiliating defeat in the CA. People had expected them to fix their own problems as well, which they did not. I thought the CA result was a wake up call for them to fix those problems. But it seems that again isn't the case. Also, I don't believe in the apparent notion of some Nepali leaders and intellectuals that democracy is safeguarded only when NC and UML lead the country, and 'Pahadai khasera sab bhatabhunga hunchha' when the Maoists lead the country. NC and UML still have enough resources to keep the balance towards Loktantrik Ganatantra. Whether they have the willingness to walk the walk is a different matter.
However, the Maoists must be forced to act democratically. NC and UML have to do everything they possibly can in order to ensure that everybody in Nepal can exercise their democratic rights. Something must be done to bring the YCL under the rule of law. They must not be allowed to implement communist education and economic policy. I would rather want NC and UML to persuade the Maoists for a written agreement on YCL, and on policy issues regarding economy, education, communication and so on.
But I fear that they will not address the real issues. NC will perhaps get the Presidency. One UML leader will be made the vice president. MJF and TMDP will get few ministries and the Maoists will push on with their agendas. The NC and UML leaders will never go back to the villages. And gradually more of their voters will be turned off.
The only ways for NC and UML to resist the growing strength of the Maoists are to democratize their own leadership, get closer to the people in towns and villages and act honestly in people's favour. If the NC and UML don't try to reestablish their organizations at local level, the Maoists will not have to bring Jana-Ganatantra to win the next few elections.
Keep talking about two-thirds majority, keep bargaining about the stakes in the government to continue the deadlock and it will bring the monster out of the Maoists even sooner.
1. Maoists' failure to assure the non-Maoist political entities that they will abide by the democratic principles and the rule of law.
2. Non-Maoists, chiefly NC and UML's failure to recognize that the Maoists are by far the largest party in the CA and therefore they have the electoral and moral rights to lead a new coalition government.
Let us assume that these failures have more to do with trying to bargain for as much influence as each could, rather than trying to knock one another out from the political playing field.
The Maoists, at times, have raised questions on their commitment to pluralistic democracy. NC and UML are fearful and distrustful of the Maoists for this reason. But I think that GPK's unswerving hunger for power and position is another important factor. Give GPK the role of President, and I am almost sure this deadlock will end. That will ultimately prove that the ongoing dispute is less about persuading the Maoists to act democratically.
More could have been done in the past three years to persuade the Maoists to a practically binding commitment for non-violent politics. Probably the issues of YCL and PLA could have been addressed in a decisive manner, with a set timetable regarding what to do with them, during the negotiations. But there were also situations where the Maoists had to be given the benefit of doubt. Holding CA elections was the topmost priority and without the compromises and agreements made then, the situation could also have turned completely wrong and we could have been in a more horrible position by now. We can never know what might have happened if the negotiations between the then 7 parties and the Maoists had failed. Therefore, I don't hold NC, UML and civil society fully responsible for everything that might go wrong after the Maoists emerge as the single largest party in the CA now. They (7 parties) did it in a good faith and we should wait for another 5 years to make a decision on whether their judgements were right or wrong in entirety.
Exceptional concession given to the Maoists after the fall of Gyanendra Shah's regime was not the only reason why NC and UML suffered the humiliating defeat in the CA. People had expected them to fix their own problems as well, which they did not. I thought the CA result was a wake up call for them to fix those problems. But it seems that again isn't the case. Also, I don't believe in the apparent notion of some Nepali leaders and intellectuals that democracy is safeguarded only when NC and UML lead the country, and 'Pahadai khasera sab bhatabhunga hunchha' when the Maoists lead the country. NC and UML still have enough resources to keep the balance towards Loktantrik Ganatantra. Whether they have the willingness to walk the walk is a different matter.
However, the Maoists must be forced to act democratically. NC and UML have to do everything they possibly can in order to ensure that everybody in Nepal can exercise their democratic rights. Something must be done to bring the YCL under the rule of law. They must not be allowed to implement communist education and economic policy. I would rather want NC and UML to persuade the Maoists for a written agreement on YCL, and on policy issues regarding economy, education, communication and so on.
But I fear that they will not address the real issues. NC will perhaps get the Presidency. One UML leader will be made the vice president. MJF and TMDP will get few ministries and the Maoists will push on with their agendas. The NC and UML leaders will never go back to the villages. And gradually more of their voters will be turned off.
The only ways for NC and UML to resist the growing strength of the Maoists are to democratize their own leadership, get closer to the people in towns and villages and act honestly in people's favour. If the NC and UML don't try to reestablish their organizations at local level, the Maoists will not have to bring Jana-Ganatantra to win the next few elections.
Keep talking about two-thirds majority, keep bargaining about the stakes in the government to continue the deadlock and it will bring the monster out of the Maoists even sooner.
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